Good evening everyone!  Two days ago, one of our country’s most contentious elections in modern U.S. history, was concluded.  To keep things short, we have a new president on the way- and here’s to hoping that he will usher in at least a little more civil discourse than the outbound president has done.

As for yours truly? He plans to celebrate the shift in power by trying durian fruit this Tuesday.  It’s the world’s funkiest fruit- with a foul aroma that serves to hide the savory sweet taste inside.  I got to smell one at a party about 15 years ago, and I seem to be enjoying the durian-flavored candies, so I’m cautiously optimistic.

Yesterday Saturday was also the first day of “solar winter ” or as I like to call it, “sun angle winter.”  It begins on or around November 7 and ends February 3 or 4.  This is the “dark quarter ” of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, when incoming solar radiation is at its weakest.  (The festivals of Halloween and Groundhog Day are intricately related to this theme of entering and exiting the darkness.)  Of course, temperatures on the continents tend to lag behind the solar seasonal cycle by about one month; that’s why December-February are usually our coldest months.

This year it feels as though the switch flipped in sync with the sun though. Saturday marked the beginning of a chilly and damp pattern that will last throughout the coming week- bringing many days in the 40s and low 50s to Portland and lots of snow to the Cascade mountains.  Basically it feels as though winter is arriving a little early this season.

We had a cold airmass overhead today with clear skies.  That is allowing our temperatures to plunge tonight, likely into the mid/upper 20s in and around Portland.  It also brought snow to northeast Oregon, shutting down I-84 near La Grande.

We won’t stay dry for long, though. A weak system is expected to slide down the coast from the north tomorrow night and early Tuesday. It will bring another shot of cold rain showers for the lowlands and snow for the mountains.  Probably no more than 1/3 to 1/2″ rain for Portland, but orographic forces in the Cascades will produce double or more precip .   That could mean nearly a foot of snow above pass elevations.

Things calm down again Wednesday and Thursday… but then on Friday?  Uh-oh, incoming storm!  It’s a juicy 972mb low, which is pretty potent for us.  Unfortunately for wind lovers, the trajectory right now doesn’t look optimal for big winds in Portland.   But it’s 5 days out and things can very easily change.  Generally you want the low to swing up from the south, and have the center just graze past the northern Oregon coast, for maximum wind potential.

Nonetheless this system will produce SOAKING rains for all of Western Oregon and Washington, Friday night into Saturday. Easily over an inch in the valleys, possibly flirting with 2″ in spots:

Notice how these systems are all relatively cool and originate pretty far north.  That’s the classic signature pattern for La Niña; cold storms out of the north Pacific. They’re having to work against a blob of unusually warm water in the ocean…but they are still substantially cooler than anything from the central Pacific.

Snow maps for the next 7 days show multiple feet for the high Cascades, and decent snow over much of Central and Eastern Oregon as well.  Winter is either here or getting very close, depending on your reckoning!

Yesterday’s 6-10 day outlook showed the cool and wet conditions continuing through next weekend and beyond.  It’s the classically chilly Cascadian winter pattern, with tons of snow in high elevations and cold rain in lower elevations.

In short, prepare for raincoat, sweater and hot cocoa type weather as we move through mid-November.  Pandemic aside, this would also be a great opportunity to get skiing up and going in time for Thanksgiving.  At least we’re likely headed toward full reservoirs next spring and summer if this keeps up!

Stay warm and enjoy the chill! -Karl