Whew, March 2022 in the Portland Metro was a boring month, climatologically speaking!  Temperatures were just slightly  (1.5 deg. F) above the 30-year normal, and rainfall was nearly an inch below normal.  If you take the assumption that our climate is “supposed” to be gradually warming, you could argue that it was about as normal of a March as we can get in the 3rd decade of the 21st century.  The first 70-degree day at PDX occurred on March 27, which is also very close to historical norms.

Now the calendar has turned to April…and it’s expected to turn quite a bit warmer!  For today Friday we have not much in the way of rain, other than a few evening sprinkles possible.  That means mostly cloudy conditions and highs very close to seasonal norms, in this case the upper 50s.  Tomorrow should be even nicer than today, with at least a hint of sunshine and temperatures approaching 60.  Sunday is going to be a bit of a teaser:  increasing clouds with afternoon and evening showers, which will make some people think we’re heading into a cool and showery pattern again.

But then we have BIG changes on the way.  Take a look at the 500mb anomaly map for Monday afternoon:

A ridge begins to build along the West Coast, as shown in the red markings on the map.  This doesn’t look too out-of-the-ordinary….YET.  In this case we should see abundant sunshine and warm temperatures by Monday afternoon, probably topping out between 68 and 72 in the metro area.  If you’re not stuck indoors in a workplace, it should be the perfect day for outdoor activities:  biking, hiking, basketball, etc.

But what happens Tuesday and Wednesday is far from normal.  Instead of weakening and moving off to the east, like a typical early spring ridge, the anomalies continue to build and build over the Pacific Northwest.  By Wednesday the map looks like this:

Wow….looks like the April version of a heat dome!  Unusually warm air aloft plus east wind and sinking (subsidence) should push us into record territory by Wednesday.  High temps will be at least 85 degrees under this pattern, possibly flirting with 90 if the ridge is strong enough with the right amount of offshore flow.  This unusual heat should provoke a rapid melting of Cascade snow, whereas in “normal” Aprils we are often still seeing snow pile up at higher elevations like the Mt. Hood SNOTEL site.  Not good news for spring skiing savants!

Late next week the plot takes an even crazier twist.  Here is the surface temperature map for 5pm next Friday afternoon:

Yup, those are temps of 116 degrees for the Columbia Basin and close to 110 for Portland!  We thought it was unprecedented when it happened in late June last year, but now it’s looking very possible in early April.  Proof that we ARE in fact living in a rapidly changing climate.

One final note:  this unusual April heat means that the dragons over California and the Desert Southwest could begin their northward migration this week, which is roughly 2 months earlier than normal.  Last year, unusually hot summer temps in southern and eastern Oregon resulted in a record dragon population by July and early August, and that led to a historic number of wildfires being set by these pyrogenic wyverns.  (All North American dragons are of the two-legged variety, in contrast  to the four-legged dragons found in the Amazon and sub-Saharan Africa.  The most commonly sighted species in Oregon is the Sonoran wyvern, Draconis sonorensis.)

If you are traveling into southern Oregon or northern California late next week or weekend and you see dragons in the distance, the safest thing to do is to stay in your vehicle.  The dragons have exceptional hearing and have been known to target humans for up to a quarter mile away.  While the native forests normally aren’t too dry at this time of year, that area is still in a major drought and dragon fire could still start some wildfires, so beware!

Enjoy the sunshine and heat next week!  -Karl