Today is the last day of January and the third day of this winter’s 2nd cold spell. Granted, the days haven’t been extremely cold since the arctic front moved in Saturday night; every day since Sunday has seen daytime temps in the upper 30s/low 40s across the metro.  But there were three freezing nights, with Sunday night and Monday morning the coldest. PDX bottomed out at 21° while VUO across the river dipped to 18°.  Dewpoints got very low on Sunday as well, into the singles & low teens.  Hope you have chapstick and hand lotion on hand!

As of January 30, PDX is running 1.8 degrees above normal, but today’s chilly temps should nudge the final number down another couple tenths of a degree.  Not exceptionally balmy, but we had enough mild westerly flow this month to keep things slightly on the warm side.  We’re also running about 1.5″ below normal January precip, due to the storm track shutting down halfway through the month.

Now February is here, and it looks boring- whether you’re rooting for more cold or for early spring like weather. First of all:  the lingering chill over us will gradually dissipate over the next couple days, as relatively weak Pacific systems try to re-enter the region. It appears one such system will push through by Friday, opening the door to more minor systems early next week. It will be damp at times, but not remarkably wet.

Also, I’m not seeing any sign of more cold air for at least the next 9-10 days.  It will likely be cool at times, but not real cold as in daytime highs below 40 and/or lows of 20-25 or colder. Here is last night’s 00z GFS chart; notice how almost none of the members go below -6C, and not many above +5C either.  That likely means many cloudy/drippy days in the 40s to near 50:

Now some of you might be keenly thinking: “what about cold east wind at the surface? We don’t need cold air aloft if we have that!”  That is true, but it leaves a distinct footprint: colder airmass temps east of the Cascade crest. If 850mb temperatures were colder in The Dalles, for example, it could mean enough of that modified arctic air gets pulled through the Gorge to bring freezing conditions to Portland and Vancouver. But no:  the Columbia Basin and Gorge are showing no cold signal over the next 2 weeks:

This is a clear sign that we don’t have any cold air coming in the next 10 days, and likely not the next 14.  That takes us into mid-February.  Clearly, the clock is ticking for any more cold/snow action this season. If it doesn’t happen by the last week of February, it probably won’t happen again.  Yes there are rare exceptions, but exceptions they are.

I’m sure a lot of the weather geeks are feeling a bit disappointed YET AGAIN.  Many of them live for snow and bitter subfreezing temperatures. Of course that can’t happen every or even every other winter in our climate. If it did, our gardens and parks and forests wouldn’t have that iconic year-round lushness!  Every once in a while we get a season like 2016-17, with multiple snowstorms and multiple weeks of solid cold.  But they are definitely not the norm.

This is actually our 8th consecutive season with measurable snowfall at the Portland NWS station in Parkrose. This December we had two very minor dustings, one at the beginning of the month and one just before the pre-Christmas ice storm.

It’s also our 6th winter where PDX appears poised to not drop below 20°.  That is a bit unusual; historically we tend to alternate between teens and 20s for our winter minima.  (Maybe someone needs to plant some date palms in town to bring back a killing freeze? 😁)

But while the 2022-23 winter has been somewhat mediocre in NW Oregon and SW Washington, it’s been very exciting in California. Heavy rains and flooding have taken a huge bite out of drought conditions down there over the past 3 months, especially in the middle part of the state:

So this winter has been good news for the West as a whole. Who knows?  Maybe we get some late cold air in the 2nd half of February. Or maybe we are in the mid/upper 60s for a few days. Or perhaps we get a consolation prize in a form of a brief 1/2″ March snowfall?

Karl